Saudi Oil Output Expected to Rebound Strongly in 2027

Saudi Arabia's oil sector is expected to stage a strong recovery in 2027, with crude production and export flows projected to normalise by September 2026, according to Riyad Capital's latest Saudi Economic Chartbook.

The investment firm forecasts oil activities will contract by 3.6% in 2026 before rebounding by 14.3% in 2027 as disruptions linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz ease and production stabilises.

Under Riyad Capital's baseline scenario, oil export routes will gradually reopen beginning in September 2026, allowing crude output to return to previous levels by the same month.

Saudi crude production is projected to average 9.1 million barrels per day in 2026 before rising to 10.4 million barrels per day in 2027, representing an increase of more than one million barrels a day. Despite the higher output, the firm expects oil prices to moderate.

Brent crude is forecast to average USD 75 a barrel in 2027, down from an estimated USD 86 in 2026. West Texas Intermediate is expected to average USD 70 next year, compared with USD 79 this year, while the OPEC basket price is projected at USD 75 versus USD 86 in 2026.

According to Riyad Capital, the oil sector's recovery will be driven by increased production volumes rather than stronger prices. The broader economy is also expected to accelerate, with GDP growth forecast to rise to 6.8% in 2027 from 0.9% in 2026. Non-oil activities are projected to expand by 4.7% next year, up from 3% in 2026.

Riyad Capital also expects the recovery in oil production to support Saudi Arabia's external position, forecasting a trade surplus of SAR 410 billion in 2027, equivalent to 7.6% of GDP, following a surplus of SAR 455 billion in 2026.